Some of the Points Ed and Craig Discussed
Mobility - - and advances made in software available, for example, in Apple's iTunes App Store and how it's used on the iPhone, as well as applications for Blackberry. When combined with a new approach from providers like AT&T, which now offers unlimited SMS texting plans for families, there will be a fast and furious move toward mobility in all aspects of life and business in the U.S.
Gains made by Intel and Microsoft in processing power and virtualization, making it possible to run the equivalent of 20 servers in what amounts to little more than the size of a pizza box - - and is affordable for even small businesses. Since data centers consume a significant percentage of national energy use, this could have a considerable impact going forward.
AT&T has introduced “unlimited texting plans” for families - - for as little as $30 per month. That may change the way kids get called to dinner during the summer, but it will also change the way businesses advertise and reach customers. We saw the way the Obama campaign reached out to voters during the 2008 campaign - - even even announcing the vice presidential pick via text message. Texting works, technology like the iPhone and Blackberry make it easier than ever, and we’re already seeing usage models change. Carriers are seeing more texts being sent than phone calls being made. Business is already making plans to catch up to this.
Big hardware companies, like Intel, IBM and others are putting energy efficiency at the top of their priority lists. We’re already seeing the fruit of this effort. For example, in our Test Center, using off-the-shelf parts including Intel’s Atom processor, we’ve built a PC that consumes less power than a light bulb. Over the coming year or two, this will begin to have an impact on home and business power consumption in a dramatic way. We won’t be going back.
Data Centers are even a bigger target for those looking to cut down on energy consumption. The EPA has found that servers use as much as 1 and a half percent of all energy consumed in the U.S. - - including homes, automobiles and other transportation. But higher-performing and more efficient processors and software virtualization are changing this. For example, we’ve found it’s possible using a server with Intel processors and Microsoft virtualization software (called Hyper-V) to create as many as 20 “virtual servers” in a server little bigger than a pizza box. That means that all the energy to power those servers, cool those servers, manage those servers can be cut down by orders of magnitude. As this technology rolls out, data centers that use so much of our country’s electricity will begin to use far less.
Bad technology is affecting us, too. That is: hackers are getting smarter, more efficient and more dangerous every day. The result is that people and businesses will need to spend more time – if not more money - - planning and implementing firewalls, anti-virus solutions and more just to keep the bad guys out. The Wall Street Journal recently reported evidence suggests that the U.S. power grid was the target of hacking attacks that came from other nations, overseas. In our lab, we have a test network - - a honey net - - that lures hackers into our servers and tries to sort out where they come from and what they’re doing. At one point last year, they even hacked into our computer-managed air conditioning system. That’s sobering and means that either we’ll see increased costs for security technology, or increased risk. Either way, that makes everything more expensive.
Netbooks and free software are making it cheaper and easier for businesses and families to afford more and more PCs. Five years ago, most families had one PC, that cost about $1,000, that was shared throughout a household. Maybe someone in the household also had work laptop they brought home, for strictly work. But now netbooks can cost as little as $250. That means a single household can have that one, main PC, the work PC that’s brought home at night, but also one, two or three additional netbooks for the kids, or just to have one in the kitchen or the living room. Today, you’ll have people keeping a netbook in the kitchen that is only used for storing recipes and clicking on the Food Network’s web site. Again: this is changing use models and our own expectations for what technology can do. Businesses will adapt to this over time.
Social Networking. We’re only now just beginning to see the sea change in how social networking, or Web 2.0 technologies, impact the economy. Here’s a big way: Advertising will never go away, but it’s now being rivaled by what our friends and others share with us on sites like Facebook and through services like Twitter. I might see a commercial or web advertisement that makes me really want to buy a product. But then I’ll throw a question out on Twitter asking people who follow me what they think. Within minutes, I’ll have as many as several dozen endorsements or bad reviews from people I talk to every day giving me instant advice about whether to buy. Everybody will have access to their own, instantaneous focus groups. Over time this will have a huge impact on how goods and services are brought to market. Sure, a product might pass an internal taste test. But has it been Twitter-tested?! That’s the question. Companies who want to get their message out will need to be Facebook- and Twitter- friendly. And that goes back to more investments in mobility and data centers that will make all this stuff work.
Health Care: The President’s stimulus plan calls for $20 billion - - or as much as $50 billion over 5 years – for doctors, hospitals, health care providers, to begin to do things like digitize health records. For years, experts have been telling us how much this will lower the costs of health care, which is one of the most expensive parts of the economy. There’s been a lot of resistance - - many people in the industry either don’t seem to want to change, are cautious about the security and privacy of health records and are moving slowly, or don’t want to spend the money to do it. These stimulus funds are going to push the industry into the 21st Century whether it likes it or not. The stimulus spending will rev up parts of the economy but, more importantly, will ultimately lower health care costs and improve health care.
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